The significance of pig farming is evident by the fact that more than half of meat
consumption is pork. However, production in the last decade in Lithuania is almost twice
as low as consumption, so more than half of pork and pork products are imported. Such a
situation has occurred in Lithuania because pig farmers face structural, production,
economic and environmental challenges.
The aim of the study is to foresee development trends of Lithuanian pig farms until
2030, considering technological, structural, production, market, and economic factors,
implementing higher pig welfare requirements. To achieve this goal, the scientific
literature related to the problems of the pig farming sector was analyzed, a research
methodology was developed, the EU legislation on higher pig welfare requirements was
analyzed and their development trends were evaluated. In addition, the prevailing pig
keeping technologies of pig farms were evaluated, the structural, production, economic and
environmental factors that determine the development of the pork sector were analyzed,
and alternative scenarios for the development of Lithuanian pig farms until 2030 were
prepared.
The analysis of the selected indicators showed that Lithuania occupies the average
place among the analyzed neighbouring countries (Latvia, Estonia, and Poland) and those
that prevail in the field of pig breeding (Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands). Only a large
farm can maintain and even develop production under the existing conditions, ensuring the
ever-tightening requirements of biosafety, animal welfare and environmental protection.
The study presents three scenarios for the perspective of pig farming development:
1) evaluated using regression equations based on the change in the number of farmers and
agricultural companies in 2000–2022. In this case, a 12 percent increase in the number of
pigs is observed (2030 vs. 2022); 2) to be self-sufficient in own pork production. In this
optimistic case, the number of pigs should be doubled; 3) a realistic scenario, which was
prepared using the DELFI method, after interviewing animal husbandry experts.
Keywords: pig farming sector, variant scenarios, pig welfare.
Kriščiukaitienė, I.; Galnaitytė, A.; Dabkienė, V.; Namiotko, V. 2023. Kiaulininkystės perspektyvos iki 2030 metų : Mokslo studija. Vilnius : Lietuvos socialinių mokslų centras. 108 p. : iliustr., santr. angl.